What If Khal Drogo Had Lived?

For the first 'what if' scenario of August, I wanted to look at an alternate scenario for an essential character in the first book, Khal Drogo.

His marriage to Daenerys was a piece of a wider plan to restore House Targaryen to the Iron Throne. The brief time he and the 'Mother of Dragons' spent together helped mold her character and his death set her on a long and very difficult trek to power.

But what if Drogo had lived? How would this affect the efforts of the Targaryen Restoration? How would this change Daenery's return to Westeros? What kind of reception could she have expected from the people and nobility of the Seven Kingdoms if she had come as a Khaleesi?

Drogo wins his duel without receiving an injury.

Not a Scratch

So how could Drogo have lived? Like with so many of these theories, altering small decisions or tiny events has a huge impact. A character making a different choice or avoiding one particular event can drastically transform the entire course of their story and the wider plot of the books.

In 'A Game of Thrones' Drogo met his end because of a small flesh-wound he received in a fight with a rival Khal. Daenerys insists that a woman she rescued from the settlement her husband just sacked, Mirri Maz Duur, treat him. Unknown to Daenerys though, the maegi deliberately poisoned Drogo's injury resulting in his wound becoming infected. Daenerys saved her husband through blood magic but smothered Drogo in an act of mercy to stop him from living out his days as a human vegetable. Drogo's Khalasar (mostly) abandoned his Khaleesi who burned herself, Maz Duur and her dragon eggs on his funeral pyre. Daenerys emerged with her dragons and set off into the Red Waste to strart again.

In this scenario, Drogo avoids being cut by his opponent during this fateful duel and walks away from the fight without that scratch. The woman Dany rescues simply joins the rest of the Khalasar as they continue on their way. Swayed by the Khaleesi's kindness she takes no revenge and instead simply uses her magic for healing.

 

The quest for ships would continue.

Slaves for Ships

With Drogo alive and Daenerys still his queen, what happens next? Well, in the books prior to the pillaging of the Lhazareen, the assassination attempt on Dany's life in Vaes Dothrak makes Drogo fully committed to her cause. He becomes determined to take his Khaleesi and his unborn son across the Narrow Sea to invade Westeros and reclaim her throne. Alive and still in charge of his Khalasar, it's certain that Drogo and his Dothraki warriors would continue to raid and pillage towns and cities in Lhazar to gather slaves. In all likelihood, the captured Lhazareen would be sold to the Masters of Slaver's Bay (since the cities border Lhazar to the south) in exchange for ships.

Though Dany likely remains uncomfortable with the volume of people her husband enslaves, (perhaps continuing to claim some women and children as her personal property to save them) she continues to go along with this plan. Since the Dothraki warriors follow her husband, not her, it's unlikely that Daenerys would be in a position to fully abolish the practice of enslaving people.

So, Drogo's Khalasar acquires a large number of slaves by sacking the towns and cities of Lhazar. One or more of the cities of Slaver's Bay proves willing to trade ships for the slaves and Drogo and Daenerys are able to set sail for Westeros.

The fate of the Khalasar after setting sail for Westeros depends on two different factors.

First, the timing of the departure. Since Drogo's Khalasar numbers some 40,000 people and undoubtedly includes at least as many horses, acquiring enough food and other supplies to sustain this force for the voyage would take a few months.

Because the death of Khal Drogo occurs in late 298 AC in the cannon timeline, we can assume that in this scenario the Khalasar would probably set sail some time in 299 AC. Since the fleet would need to likely dock at least a few times at different cities to resupply, the best guess is that Drogo, Dany and their infant son Rhaego (born in 298) would reach the shores of Westeros in late 299 or early 300 AC.

This means that they would land in the Seven Kingdoms at the tail end of the War of the Five Kings perhaps just before or just after the poisoning of King Joffrey at the Purple Wedding. 

 

Aegon (Young Griff) a rival or a partner?

The Aegon Factor

The second important factor, is her relationship with other members of the Targaryen Loyalist camp. The biggest members of this camp are Illyrio Mopatis, Varys, Jon Connington and her nephew, Aegon. While it might seem like Dany and her husband would have no problem joining forces with these other players, the relationship between Dany and her nephew could just as easily turn frosty.

In the books, Illyrio arranged Dany's marriage to Drogo in order for her brother Visery's to gain 10,000 warriors. It was Viserys, not Dany, who Ilyrio and his co-conspirators wanted to place on the Iron Throne. With Viserys' death, Ilyrio and Varys invest their hopes for a Targaryen Restoration with Rhaegar's surviving son, Aegon.

Since Aegon's claim to the throne is stronger than his aunt's, Daenerys plan of using her husband to capture the Iron Throne for her and her son becomes complicated. She can either accept her nephew's claim as more legitimate and try to add Drogo's forces to Aegon's or she can continue to Westeros and attempt to reclaim the throne for herself on her own.

So what would her decision be?

While she might have some sense of familial affection for her nephew, Daenerys is a much stronger and independent person. She is used to being a Khaleesi and would likely not want to bow to her nephew and forsake the thing which she has been driven to want for most of her life, the Iron Throne. Additionally, Drogo (who never respected Viserys) would dislike the idea of submitting himself to another man.

Taking all this into consideration, this timeline sees Drogo and Daenerys rejecting Aegon's offer and continuing to Westeros alone. Aegon gathers his own supporters which includes the Golden Company and hires other mercenary companies to fight for him.

The Martells- Dany's best hope for a Westerosi ally.

The Sun, the Dragon and the Stallion

When Drogo and Dany arrive in Westeros they find the Seven Kingdoms torn to pieces by a vicious civil war. The death of Joffrey Baratheon, the new reaving campaign of the Ironborn under King Euron Greyjoy, unrest in the Bolton controlled North and the Faith Militant rising in King's Landing makes the realm's future uncertain and provides a window for Daenerys to emerge as an alternative to the Lannister controlled throne.

Since Dorne has (secretly) remained loyal to House Targaryen in the hopes of avenging Elia Martell, Daenerys and Drogo land at Sunspear.

While in the cannon timeline, Doran Martell seeks to wed his son Quentyn to the widowed Daenerys in Mereen this scenario  becomes unrealistic if Drogo is still alive.

However, the 'Dornish Master Plan' continues. Dany makes another pact with the Martells, perhaps marrying Arrianne Martell to one of Drogo's blood-riders to seal it. While Aegon might try to court Dornish favor as well, the widely believed account of his death as an infant during the sack of King's Landing makes the claim of his survival dubious. In a 'Winds of Winter' chapter for instance, Arianne journeyed to Aegon to try and ascertain the legitimacy of his bloodline. Additionally, Dany's 40,000 strong Khalasar is a far more formidable force than the 10,000 strong Golden Company.

With the Martells willing to support her, Drogo and Dany march their combine Dothraki/Dornish force north to make for King's Landing. In a move reminiscent of her ancestor Aegon Targaryen, she sends messages to all the lords of Westeros declaring her Queenship.

While some lords would undoubtedly declare for her, this does not likely boost her numbers. The War of the Five Kings has exhausted the fighting strength of many houses, meaning that the Khalasar and the Dornish would make up the bulk of Dany's strength.

With the Reach controlled by House Tyrell, the Dothraki/Dornish host marches through the desolated Stormlands crushing its war weary lords.

Any houses that do not declare for her are sacked and pillaged by the Dothraki. The token force of Tyrell soldiers, left to continue the siege of Baratheon loyalists in Storm's End, are easily overwhelmed. Though the Khaleesi succeeds in keeping her husband and his riders restrained in some instances, she's unable to stop the large Khalasar from periodically raiding and pillaging the small-folk of the Stormlands as they approach King's Landing.

Varys, a Targaryen Loyalist, sabatoges the Lannisters and Tyrells.

With Daenerys Drogo and the Martells at the gates, the Lannister/Tyrell alliance tries to mount a defense. Matters are complicated by Varys sabotaging the defenders efforts in the Red Keep. The death of Tywin at Tyrion's hands as well as the assassination of Kevan Lannister occur as in the books, orchestrated by the Master of Whispers to assist Daenerys. Assuming that these events ultimately result in the Lion and the Rose parting ways, the Tyrell's opt to join forces with Daenerys and King's Landing falls quickly.

However, what if the Tyrells and the Lannisters simply see the Dothraki/Dornish as a much more pressing threat and unite against them? With around 30,000 Tyrell men, a few hundred Lannister soldiers, and five thousand Goldcloaks of the City Watch the Tyrells/Lannisters can field only about half of numbers of the combined Dothraki/Dornish force (40,000 Dothraki/20,000 Dornish). If they march out to face Drogo and Dany in the field, this force is quickly slaughtered. While the more sound option is to hide behind the city walls and await reinforcements, its unlikely the siege would last long. Varys would to sabotage events in King's Landing for the defenders. Cersei and Mace Tyrell are likely unable to coordinate their forces well and the city falls in an assault.

The Dothraki, in all likelihood, would be let themselves loose on the realm.

Dothraki On the Loose

During the taking of King's Landing, Daenerys restrains her husband perhaps by sending the Dorthraki to go into the Riverlands to chase Jaime and the Lannister forces assisting with the Frey's siege of Riverrun. The assault and occupation of the city is left to the Dornish (in the hopes of preventing a whole-sale slaughter) who take the Red Keep. Since Dany is likely to remain merciful and tactful she refrains from killing Cersei, Tommen or any Tyrell hostages she manages to take. She instead uses them as leverage to try and secure the loyalty of the realm.

So, Daenerys has the throne and perhaps now receives the fealty of many great houses. Does she get a happily ever after?

No, not really. Even if she secures the Iron Throne she would still have to worry about securing her new kingdom. Dorne, the Stormlands, and the Vale would back her, while the Reach and the Westerlands would fall in line if presented with Lannister and Tyrell hostages. However, the Iron Islands under King Euron would continue to remain in rebellion while instability in the Riverlands and the North could lead to hostile forces emerging there.

The Dothraki, under her husband Drogo, would also continue to be a lethal force but one which would prove to eventually be an Achilles heel for her. 

 

With Dothraki society entirely centered around raiding and pillaging, it would be unrealistic to expect her husband's Khalasar to remain passive for very long even if Drogo tried to reign them in. If the Khalasar continued to pillage large parts of Westeros, even those areas that did declare for Daenerys, it could alienate from the Westerosi. It would be increasingly hard for Dany to be both queen and Khaleesi since her subjects in the Seven Kingdoms would view her Dothraki Khalasar as an occupying foreign force and the Khalasar would be itching to return to its nomadic, rampaging way of life.

It's probable that the Dothraki would split from Daenerys and her husband, with Drogo's strength being called into question as he restrained his people too often and denied them their 'right' to plunder and enslave as they wished. In a best case scenario, the Khalasar splits with some Dothraki following Drogo and others breaking off into one or more smaller Khalasars. In the worst case scenario (the more likely one) Drogo is challenged and killed by a rival who then turns the Dothraki loose on the Seven Kingdoms.

While this Khalasar would eventually be defeated by a combined force of Westerosi lords, Daenerys would perhaps lose her strongest backer and her throne all together.

With her Khalasar turned loose, Daenerys also comes into conflict with her greatest rival for the throne; her nephew Aegon. If Young Griff decides to return from exile and press his claim, especially in the aftermath of Drogo's death, it would present the lords of Westeros with another alternative to Daenerys.

While it's possible that Aegon could simply join forces with his aunt (perhaps marrying her in the case of Drogo's death). It's also just as plausible to see a Targaryen civil war developing between the two family members with Daenerys being increasingly isolated as lords defected to Aegon.

Sorry people, it's ASOIAF. No one really gets a happy ending.

What If Aegon Never Conquered Westeros?

First, many thanks to those who read my previous two entries in this series. The Stannis and Rhaegar  'what if?' pieces received a lot of views and positive feedback. I'm so happy about that. I've decided to run with this alternate ASOIAF timeline series for a while (though I'll also continue writing other posts). 

 

For the third 'what if?' timeline I thought it would be interesting to go way, way back in the ASOIAF universe. What I want to look at, is a timeline in which Aegon's Conquest never happened. What would the continent of Westeros and the Seven Kingdoms would look like if the Targaryen Dynasty had never risen? Which lands and Great Houses would be the most and least affected in such a scenario? Which power if any could conceivably rise to bind the Seven Kingdoms together?

No Dragons, No Fire and Blood

Along with the invasions of the First Men and the Andals, the arrival of Targaryens was an event that changed Westeros forever. Aegon, his sister-wives and their dragons were the first to bind all of the continent's warring kingdoms (save Dorne) together. During Aegon's Conquest, old royal houses were destroyed, others brought to their knees, other houses were raised up and territories shifted ownership. A new city, King's Landing, was built and a throne made from the fused swords of Aegon's fallen enemies became the symbol of power for a new political order.

The Targaryens meet their end in the Doom of Valyria.

In this alternate timeline, though, Aegon, Visenya Rhaenys and their dragons never exist. Their ancestors who, in the cannon-history, settled Dragonstone twelve years before Valyria's destruction never leave the doomed continent. Instead, Aenar Targaryen ignores his daughter's prophetic warnings about the Doom and remains in his homeland. His entire line his wiped-out and Dargonstone, which had been a Valryian outpost, becomes the home of another house.

Dragons cease to exist and fade in to legend and myth along with Valyria itself. However, like in the cannon-timeline, Volantis and other Valyrian outposts do endure and preserve some aspects of their now deceased motherland's culture.

The Seven Kingdoms Remain...Seven Kingdoms

Since the Targaryens and their dragons are no longer on the scene, where does this leave the Seven Kingdoms that they conquered?

 

In the short term, pretty much where they were. With no Aegon the Conqueror, the Seven Kingdoms (shown below) remain independent realms. The long term futures of these different kingdoms are impossible to really predict and could go a number of different directions. To cover all of those possible outcomes would require more than one entry. However, based on what we know of the state of these kingdoms at the time of the Conquest (from The World of Ice and Fire and the main series) it's possible to make a few solid predictions.

The Seven Kingdoms at the time of Aegon's Conquest

Gardeners, Durrandons, Hoares and the Rest

Some houses and lands are more affected than others by Aegon's absence. The Reach, the Stormlands, the Iron Islands and the Riverlands were changed far more deeply by the Conquest than other parts of Westeros. The royal houses that ruled these lands were extinguished. With no Field of Fire, no Siege of Storm's End and no Burning of Harrenhal, houses Gardener, Durrandon and Hoare endure.

Sigil of House Gardener, the Kings of the Reach

In the Reach, House Gardner, which like the Lannisters and the Starks can trace its ancestry to the Age of Heroes, continues to rule from High Garden. Mern IX (the last Gardener King in the cannon who is killed along with all of his sons and male relatives) continues his reign and is succeeded by his son Edmund. The Tyrells remain the Gardener King's high stewards and continue to serve as trusted advisors and (perhaps at times) the power behind the Oakenseat.

Sigil of the Storm Kings of House Durrandon (adopted by the Baratheons)

In the Stormlands, the ruling house of Durrandon does not become extinct either (at least not at Aegon's hands). Since the founder of House Baratheon, Orys, was a bastard brother of Aegon, Storm's End remains the seat of Argilac Durrandon (the Arrogant). He marries his daughter Argella to another suitor and perhaps lives long enough to sire a male heir. Like in the cannon, Argilac also tries to seek out allies to counter the presence of the Ironborn in the Riverlands. Instead of sending offers of alliance to Aegon, however, he likely tries to build bridges with one of the other kingdoms surrounding the Riverlands such as the Vale or the Westerlands.

Sigil of House Hoare, rulers of the Ironborn and the Riverlands

This brings us to the Iron Islands and the Riverlands, the two regions that were arguably changed the most by the Targaryens. When Aegon arrived in Westeros, the Ironborn had carved an empire out of the Riverlands and what would become the Crownlands. Their royal house, Hoare, ruled as Kings of the Isles and the Rivers. Under kings Harwyn, Halleck and Harren the Ironborn successfully retained controlled of their conquest by fighting off the Arryns, Lannisters, Gardeners and Durrandons. The Storm Kings were the Hoares' strongest rivals for the Riverlands, since the Durrandons had ruled the territory prior to having it taken away by Harwyn. Arguably, the Kingdom of the Isles and Rivers was the most powerful by the time of the Conquest.

In this timeline, King Harren the Black still completes his monstrous castle of Harrenhal making it his seat of power. Though the Hoare line is not extinguished by dragon flame, the Kings of the Isles and the Rivers are likely unable to maintain their great castle or their empire in the long term. Like in the cannon, the construction of Harrenhal drains material and human resources from the Riverlands and the Iron Islands. While the castle is impressive and perhaps impregnable to a direct assault the project ultimately leaves the Ironborn severely weakened. Maintaining the massive castles towers, hearths, kitchens, stables and barracks only puts further strain on the already depleted lands under Harren's rule.

The construction of Harrenhal depletes resources and leaves House Hoare vulnerable

While Harren likely lives out the rest of his reign, the enemies of the Ironborn sense the weakness of his realm. Whether through invasion by one or more of the surrounding kingdoms, a rebellion on the Iron Islands or in the Riverlands or a combination of these events, it seems likely that the construction of Harrenhal would eventually lead to the Riverlands being wrested from the Hoares and given to another kingdom. Harrenhal falls largely into ruin like in the books and house Hoare is eventually driven out of power and destroyed, with the Ironborn withdrawing to their islands. Another Ironborn family, perhaps the Greyjoys, succeeds them.

 

The houses least affected by the Conquest, the Starks, Martells, Arryns and Lannisters endure as well. They remain the leaders of their peoples and continue the wars that they have always engaged in.

No Iron Throne to Bend To...Not Ever

Not surprisingly, conflicts continue between the various kingdoms. As time passes, their lands expand and contract with each new war. However, in the absence of a Targaryen Conquest is there another scenario in which all Seven Kingdoms could be brought together under a single ruler?

 

Not very likely.

 

Aegon's Conquest succeeded due to one factor and one factor alone: his three dragons. Without them, the Targaryens' three thousand man army would have been unable to conquer anything beyond a few smaller territories in what we know as the Crownlands. In battle after battle, Balerion, Vhagar and Meraxes decided the outcome and their mere existence and presence was enough to convince even powerful rulers like Torrhen Stark and Sharra Arryn to bend the knee.

Dragons ensured Aegon's victory over his enemies.

In a ASOIAF universe without Aegon's dragons, there's only one other way to conquer all of Westeros- with an army.

 

However, defeating and subduing an entire continent filled with diverse peoples, harsh and varied climates and powerful kingdoms who would fight tooth and nail to hold their lands, would require an enormous number of soldiers. At a minimum, this army would have to be several hundred thousand strong if it was to have any hope of overwhelming any of the other kingdoms' forces.  

 

While its hard to confirm the exact size of the armies that each of the Seven Kingdoms can raise, none of the numbers in the books (or from other estimates online) come even close to matching the army size required. Most great houses such as the Starks and the Arryns seem only able to muster between twenty to thirty thousand men. Even the wealthiest and most powerful kingdoms, the Reach and the Westerlands, can only field a little over fifty thousand men each.

No Iron Throne...or one quite like it.

Barring the emergence of some magical super-weapon (such as dragons) or the complete absorption of one of the kingdoms by another (also not likely given the pattern of warfare) its not feasible that any sort of High King would ever be able to rise in Westeros and subdue all the lands from the North to Dorne.

 

Before the conquest, the Seven Kingdoms were just that. They were seven independent territories ruled by a royal house. In this timeline, Westeros' kingdoms remain sovereign with their royals houses continuing to rule and go to war with one another in pursuit of territory.

 

Wars continue and the power of various kingdoms wax and wane with time.

 

 

No, the 'Bad Guys' Don't Always Win the Game of Thrones

One of the best aspects of Game of Thrones and the book series it's based on is how you never really know who could die.

Early on it was clear to both show fans and book readers that Martin's epic story wasn't going to follow the normal formulas we've come to expect from TV or fantasy novels.

Characters that would be the untouchable hero of any other story, not only lose their struggles but lose them hard.

The noble father, Ned Stark, gets decapitated. His hot blooded son Robb, an unmatched warrior, tries to avenge him. In the hands of a lesser author, the Young Wolf would get his justice. He would have hardships, he would face seemingly insurmountable odds, but he would win.

Not so in Westeros.

Instead, Robb's one-time allies turn on him. He, his mother and his army are slain at a wedding. His enemies triumph.

The 'good guys', those characters that act out of a sense of honor, altruism or who value the better angels of human nature, rarely seem to come out alive or on top in Martin's world. It's those self-interested characters willing or eager to kill, maim and betray anyone, that prevail.

Or so many fans believe.

I used to be in that camp. The camp of 'the worst characters always win'.

Now I think that's an oversimplification.

Yes, the characters we know and love (Ned, Robb, Jon, Tyrion) never seemed to truly get ahead.


They get shat on by the author but so do the characters we hate or love to hate.

The genius of the show and the books is not that the 'good guys' are doomed to fail simply because they do what they think is moral. It's that all the characters rise and fall based on the repercussions of their actions.

By the third book (and season) it seems that the Lannisters have won the Game of Thrones. The Machiavellian Tywin and his family have triumphed. Their rivals are dead or spent. They should be able to rest easy.

Yet just as they reach the height of their power, the Lannisters are brought low by the choices they've made.

King Joffrey's petulance and sadism gets him poisoned by The Queen of Thorns and Little Finger. Tywin, the seemingly unbeatable political juggernaut, is done in by the son who he mistreated for being a dwarf. Cersei, blinded by her fear of the Tyrells and her overconfidence, underestimates the High Sparrow and she is swept from power.

Then we have (maybe) the most hated families in the Seven Kingdoms: the Freys and the Boltons.

After murdering Robb and gaining the favor of the Lannisters, these two factions also seem to have made it. For almost three seasons (and two books) neither house seemed to face much in the way of justice for massacring so many.

Seeing Ramsay Bolton, possibly the most rabidly sadistic character ever created, continue to climb the ladder of success was especially infuriating.

Yet if the Starks' greatest weakness is their sense of nobility and honor, the Bolton's penchant for unrestrained fear and brutality is theirs.

The Red Wedding and Ramsay's bloody excesses, alienate the people the Bolton's are supposed to rule. In the show, Ramsay's abuse of Sansa drives her into an alliance with Jon Snow and they overthrow him. In the books, the Bolton's betrayal leads to a Great Conspiracy against them led by the Mandelrys.

The Freys don't fair much better. They are targets for the Brotherhood without Banners and don't have the respect of the people of the Riverlands. Both in the books and on the show, the Starks do get revenge (though they've gotten more of it in the show).

None of this means that characters like Jon will necessarily triumph when the last episode or the final book comes out. Martin has made it pretty clear the story will end on a bittersweet note.

What's also clear though, especially with Season 6 having wrapped up, is that being the cruelest, meanest, most conniving a-hole in the realm can be a handicap as well as an advantage.

You may get to the top but the one who wins power and stays in power strikes a balance between ruthlessness and compassion (cough, cough Daenerys).